By Ingrid "Shortwave" Frost
Iranian state media reported Thursday that Tehran could move to block American and Israeli shipments from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, even as it pursues a joint venture with Oman to reopen the waterway to ordinary commercial traffic, according to The Hill.
Members of Iran's parliament are reviewing a proposed bill that would bar what it calls "hostile" vessels from the chokepoint, The Hill reports, citing Iranian state media. The strait is one of the world's most important oil arteries, and any credible threat to traffic through it tends to move markets fast.
The timing matters. U.S. crude oil supplies are sitting at a 45-year low, according to Bank of America Global Research data cited by The Hill, with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve down to roughly 43 days of crude — its thinnest cushion since 1983. The Hill attributes that squeeze in part to the continuing fallout of the Iran war on U.S. reserves, though the full picture of how much of that drawdown is tied to the conflict versus other market pressures is not detailed in available reporting.
What's not yet clear from Iranian state media's account is how far the proposed bill would go in practice, or whether Tehran has the will or the means to enforce a selective blockade against specific flags while keeping the strait open to others. Hormuz carries a fifth of the world's oil traffic on a good day; threading that needle — open for some, closed for others — has never been simple, legally or militarily.
For now this is a bill under review, not a blockade in motion. But in a strait this narrow, with reserves this thin, even a proposal carries weight.
— Compiled from reporting by The Hill.
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