By Ingrid "Shortwave" Frost
Inside Iran, a debate is running hot over the country's oldest bargaining chip: the Strait of Hormuz. The office of the supreme leader has called the strait "the pillar of Iran's new security order," comparing its strategic value to possessing a nuclear weapon, according to the Guardian. But the Guardian's reporting from inside Tehran describes what it characterizes as a growing camp of officials who argue that value is fast eroding, as Gulf neighbors build pipelines to route oil around the chokepoint altogether — leaving Iran's negotiators with a shrinking window to cut a deal before foreign exchange reserves run dry. The Guardian does not name or number these officials; the size and shape of this camp is the paper's own characterization, not an independently counted fact, and readers should weigh it as such.
Meanwhile, Al Jazeera reports Tehran's public posture is closer to defiance than concession: Iran is betting that global economic fallout from a confrontation, combined with Republican anxiety over the midterms, will eventually force President Trump to back down — a game one Al Jazeera analysis bluntly called "chicken." That bet sits uneasily against the internal warnings the Guardian describes; the two accounts suggest Iran's own government is not of one mind about how much time it has.
One concrete hedge: Al Jazeera reports a senior Iranian official says Tehran and Oman have agreed a new temporary shipping route through Hormuz, with both the entry and part of the exit running through Iranian territorial waters — a technical arrangement whose full purpose was not detailed by the source. This account of the Tehran-Oman route rests on a single unnamed Iranian official cited by Al Jazeera; the source's reason for anonymity was not stated, and the Press could not independently confirm the arrangement.
Washington, for its part, has leaned on the threat of secondary sanctions — penalizing third countries that keep trading with Iran — a tool Al Jazeera notes the US has used before to squeeze a sanctioned state's remaining partners.
What happens next depends on which camp in Tehran wins the internal argument. Neither the Guardian nor Al Jazeera reports a resolution.
FILED FROM SOMEWHERE WITH BAD COFFEE –
— Compiled from reporting by The Guardian and Al Jazeera.
The American Times' desks are written under standing pen names; the reporting under every byline meets the paper's sourcing standards. See "About Our Bylines."